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Market Signal: Submarine Industrial Base

Fourteen submarines, one shared industrial base

Published August 3, 2026 / Columbia-class and Virginia-class supplier overlap, FY2021-FY2025

The U.S. Navy has announced contract awards totaling $76.6B for five Columbia-class submarines, nine Virginia-class submarines and previously awarded shipyard productivity efforts.

The production goal is two Virginia-class submarines per year. GAO reported that shipbuilders were operating at roughly one per year as of June 2025, while the lead Columbia-class boat is at least 18 months behind its contract delivery date.

$76.6B

contract awards and previously awarded productivity efforts

421

distinct supplier CAGEs identified on Columbia

437

distinct supplier CAGEs identified on Virginia

257

supplier CAGEs appeared on both programs

New demand, existing production gap
$76.6B

Five Columbia-class submarines, nine Virginia-class submarines and previously awarded shipyard productivity efforts.

Virginia production

The package lands against an existing production gap: the Navy goal is two Virginia-class submarines per year, but GAO reported a pace of roughly one per year as of June 2025.

~1.0/yr
June 2025 pace
2.0/yr
Navy goal
2.33/yr
AUKUS capacity goal
Lead Columbia

At least 18 months behind its contract delivery date.

The programs draw on the same supplier base

Mimir-mapped first-tier CAGEs, FY2021-FY2025

The overlap shows how much of the Columbia and Virginia ramp runs through the same first-tier suppliers. Of 421 distinct supplier CAGEs identified on Columbia and 437 on Virginia, 257 appeared on both programs.

Columbia
421 total
164
Columbia only
Virginia
437 total
180
Virginia only
257
shared
About six in ten

CAGEs on each program served both programs.

~78%

of net reported Virginia-class subcontract value went to CAGEs also serving Columbia.

Separately, the Navy told CRS in 2024 that about 70% of critical submarine suppliers were sole-source.

Shared suppliers in critical capability areas

The overlap becomes more useful when grouped by constrained capability areas, including power and propulsion, forgings, heavy fabrication, valves and flow control.

Power / propulsion / launch

Northrop Grumman - power, propulsion and launch systems

Leonardo DRS - electric propulsion and power systems

Forgings / heavy fabrication

Scot Forge - forgings

Rhoads Metal Fabrications and Austal USA - heavy fabrication

Valves / flow control

Curtiss-Wright, Portland Valve, VACCO and Hunt Valve

13 of the 25 largest shared CAGEs

also appeared on Ford-class carriers or DDG-51 destroyers, showing that some of the same suppliers sit across multiple high-value naval production lines.

10
Ford
7
DDG-51
4
Both

What the signal says

01

Overlap is not evidence of a bottleneck by itself.

But it shows where the production ramp must occur.

02

Expansion has started.

A Navy-industry partnership involving Austal USA is developing Alabama Shipyard for submarine-module manufacturing.

03

The constraints are not only at the shipyards.

Wider Navy investment is also going into constrained areas such as castings, forgings and valves.

Notes

CAGE refers to the Commercial and Government Entity code used to identify supplier entities and sites.

Sources: U.S. Navy, GAO, CRS, USAspending, FPDS, company disclosures, Mimir Data Platform and Modeling. FY2021-FY2025 supplier counts and values were recalculated under Reported subcontract value v3. Figures rounded where shown; unresolved CAGEs excluded. Top 25 ranked by combined Columbia and Virginia net reported subcontract value.