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Market Signal: Supplier Dependency

For many Tier 2 defense suppliers, one prime relationship accounts for almost all of their subcontract value

Published August 4, 2026 / FY2025 Tier 2 defense supplier concentration

For many Tier 2 defense suppliers, one prime relationship accounts for almost all of their subcontract value.

We looked at FY2025 US defense suppliers receiving $1M-$10M in observed contract value, where more than half of that value came through mapped subcontracts.

$1M-$10M

FY2025 observed defense contract value cohort

>50%

of observed value came through mapped subcontracts

97%

typical mapped subcontract value through one prime

85%

received more than half of observed value through one prime

One customer's share for a typical subcontractor

Typical subcontractor = cohort median

For the typical subcontractor in this group, 97% of mapped subcontract value came through one prime customer.

Mapped subcontract value
Largest prime customer
97%
97%

Even after adding the supplier's direct prime obligations, that same customer still represented 88% of its observed defense contract value.

Observed defense contract value
After direct prime obligations were added
88%
88%
Largest prime All other value

This pattern is widespread

Across the cohort, 85% received more than half of their observed defense value through a single prime.

85%

received more than half of their observed defense value through a single prime.

What the signal shows

For many Tier 2 suppliers, customer concentration sits with the prime - not simply with an individual contract or program.

That matters because the dependency can be hidden if the supplier is viewed only through individual awards, NSNs or programs.

What the signal says

01

The concentration sits with the prime.

For many Tier 2 suppliers, customer concentration sits with the prime - not simply with an individual contract or program.

02

The pattern remains after direct awards are added.

Even after adding the supplier's direct prime obligations, that same customer still represented 88% of observed defense contract value.

03

The pattern is widespread.

Across the cohort, 85% received more than half of their observed defense value through a single prime.

Notes

Observed defense value here combines positive direct prime obligations with included reported subcontract value at the CAGE level for this published cohort analysis. Prime obligations and subcontract values are separate procurement layers, so this constructed measure should not be read as independent federal spending or total company revenue.

CAGE refers to the Commercial and Government Entity code used to identify supplier entities and sites. Supplier and prime are identified by CAGE.

Sources: USAspending and public prime and subcontract procurement data; Mimir Data Platform and Modeling. Figures rounded.